Yes and no. We can forecast aurora probability well, but not the exact minute it will burst overhead. Understanding the timescales helps you plan a realistic trip.
Here's how aurora prediction actually works.
Long-range (days to weeks)
The Sun rotates about every 27 days, so active regions often return on a rough cycle. Forecasters also watch for coronal holes and sunspots that send solar wind our way. This gives a general heads-up, but it's low precision.
Short-range (30–60 minutes)
The most reliable prediction comes from satellites at the L1 point, about 1.5 million km sunward. They measure the solar wind speed and magnetic direction (Bz) just before it hits Earth, giving roughly 30–60 minutes' warning of a likely display.
What the numbers mean
- KP index: overall activity, 0–9. In Ruka, aurora is visible from KP 1.
- Solar wind speed: 500+ km/s is promising.
- Bz: a southward (negative) Bz greatly improves the odds.
How we use it
Our guides watch these feeds live, then combine them with hour-by-hour cloud forecasts to decide where to drive. You can watch the same data on our live aurora monitor.